Team Previews 2021: Baltimore Orioles
All projections courtesy of Fangraphs.
Projected Record: 66-96 (5th in AL East)
2021 promises to be another year of rebuilding for the Baltimore Orioles. They finished 2020 with a record of 25-35, one game above last in the AL East. Though they will be somewhat buoyed by the return of Trey Mancini from his battle with cancer, they also traded away Jose Iglesias, their best player from last season, to the Angels for prospects. Beyond that, they didn’t make any particularly notable moves this offseason. The Iglesias move is fairly similar to how the Orioles handled Jonathan Villar following 2019. Villar had been their best player that season, but Baltimore elected to simply release him to avoid paying him an increased salary through arbitration. At the very least, Baltimore was able to get prospects this time around. It is very clear however, Baltimore is not particularly interested in winning right now, and they certainly don’t want to spend any money in the meantime.
Projected Opening Day Starting Lineup
| Order | Player | Position | Bats |
| 1 | Austin Hays | CF | R |
| 2 | DJ Stewart | LF | L |
| 3 | Anthony Santander | RF | S |
| 4 | Trey Mancini | DH | R |
| 5 | Chance Sisco | C | L |
| 6 | Ryan Mountcastle | 1B | R |
| 7 | Freddy Galvis | SS | S |
| 8 | Rio Ruiz | 3B | L |
| 9 | Yolmer Sánchez | 2B | R |
Based on the ZiPS projection system, the Orioles are one of two teams with no position players expected to be worth at least 2 wins. Currently the highest projected is RF Anthony Santander with 1.7 fWAR. To put in bluntly, the only bright spots to watch in this offense will likely be Santander, Mancini, and possibly Ryan Mountcastle. Mountcastle, still technically a rookie, is coming off a (shortened) season in which he posted a 141 wRC+ in 35 games. He is also still listed as the #3 prospect in Baltimore’s system. The #1 prospect for the Orioles, and #3 in all of baseball, is Adley Rutschman. Though he hasn’t played above the A level, many pipelines anticipate that he will make his MLB debut at some point in 2021. Fangraphs describes him as such, “A superlative defender at a premium position, Rutschman is also a fairly polished switch-hitter with power and an intense, charismatic team leader.” So there’s that, maybe.
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| Role | Player | Throw |
| SP1 | John Means | L |
| SP2 | Keegan Akin | L |
| SP3 | Dean Kremer | R |
| SP4 | Jorge López | R |
| SP5 | Felix Hernandez | R |
Projected Opening Day Bullpen
| Role | Player | Throws |
| LR | Tyler Wells | R |
| MR | Mac Sceroler | R |
| MR | Shawn Armstrong | R |
| MR | Paul Fry | L |
| MR | Dillon Tate | R |
| SU | Cesar Valdez | R |
| SU | Tanner Scott | L |
| CL | Hunter Harvey | R |
In case you were wondering: yes, they are very bad at pitching too. Their pitcher projections are pretty much just a list of losing records, ERA’s in the 5’s and high 4’s, and WARs under 1. Personally, I think ZiPS is probably underestimating John Means and Alex Cobb, but that doesn’t mean I think they’re actually going to be GOOD per se. The O’s are, similar to their lineup, are one of only three teams with no pitchers expected to be worth 2 WAR (Rangers/Pirates). It’s likely to be a season full of middling starters and relievers you’ve never heard of getting innings just to eat them.
But like, hey, Adley Rutschman soon? Maybe?
Top Prospects:
1. Adley Rutschman
2. Grayson Rodriguez
3. Ryan Mountcastle
4. DL Hall
5. Heston Kjerstad
6. Gunnar Henderson
7. Terrin Vavra
8. Keegan Akin
9. Ryan McKenna